Pre-tourney Rankings
Atlantic Coast
2016-17


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
3 North Carolina 100.0%   2   26 - 7 14 - 4 26 - 7 14 - 4 +20.6      +12.5 4 +8.1 22 75.2 35 +19.1 9 +20.1 1
7 Louisville 100.0%   2   24 - 8 12 - 6 24 - 8 12 - 6 +19.3      +9.9 15 +9.4 9 66.7 210 +18.1 10 +16.9 3
10 Duke 100.0%   2   27 - 8 11 - 7 27 - 8 11 - 7 +18.4      +12.3 6 +6.0 44 68.1 166 +19.7 7 +16.6 5
11 Virginia 100.0%   5   22 - 10 11 - 7 22 - 10 11 - 7 +17.9      +5.0 56 +12.9 1 52.8 351 +15.8 22 +15.7 6
18 Florida St. 100.0%   4   25 - 8 12 - 6 25 - 8 12 - 6 +17.1      +9.6 17 +7.5 26 73.5 53 +17.1 18 +17.5 2
25 Notre Dame 100.0%   5   25 - 9 12 - 6 25 - 9 12 - 6 +15.5      +9.4 21 +6.1 43 67.8 176 +17.3 16 +16.7 4
29 Wake Forest 82.2%   11   19 - 13 9 - 9 19 - 13 9 - 9 +12.9      +11.9 10 +1.0 137 72.9 61 +11.9 39 +12.1 10
31 Miami (FL) 97.1%   8   21 - 11 10 - 8 21 - 11 10 - 8 +12.9      +3.9 69 +9.0 13 60.4 324 +14.4 29 +14.5 7
36 Virginia Tech 98.7%   8   22 - 10 10 - 8 22 - 10 10 - 8 +11.8      +10.1 14 +1.7 119 69.1 135 +14.5 28 +13.8 8
39 Clemson 6.8%   17 - 15 6 - 12 17 - 15 6 - 12 +11.5      +7.3 34 +4.3 66 66.0 223 +10.4 52 +8.1 12
46 Syracuse 33.9%   18 - 14 10 - 8 18 - 14 10 - 8 +11.1      +8.7 26 +2.3 102 64.9 250 +9.6 58 +13.4 9
73 Pittsburgh 0.0%   16 - 17 4 - 14 16 - 17 4 - 14 +7.7      +6.1 41 +1.5 121 62.9 287 +9.0 62 +6.0 13
77 Georgia Tech 0.2%   16 - 15 8 - 10 16 - 15 8 - 10 +6.8      -3.3 258 +10.1 6 66.6 214 +8.6 66 +11.4 11
94 North Carolina St. 0.0%   15 - 17 4 - 14 15 - 17 4 - 14 +4.8      +5.7 48 -0.9 198 73.6 51 +6.2 87 +4.9 14
138 Boston College 0.0%   9 - 23 2 - 16 9 - 23 2 - 16 +1.4      +0.4 157 +1.0 139 74.3 45 -1.1 181 +0.6 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th
North Carolina 1.0 100.0
Louisville 2.0 100.0
Duke 5.0 100.0
Virginia 5.0 100.0
Florida St. 2.0 100.0
Notre Dame 2.0 100.0
Wake Forest 10.0 100.0
Miami (FL) 7.0 100.0
Virginia Tech 7.0 100.0
Clemson 12.0 100.0
Syracuse 7.0 100.0
Pittsburgh 13.0 100.0
Georgia Tech 11.0 100.0
North Carolina St. 13.0 100.0
Boston College 15.0 100.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
North Carolina 14 - 4 100.0
Louisville 12 - 6 100.0
Duke 11 - 7 100.0
Virginia 11 - 7 100.0
Florida St. 12 - 6 100.0
Notre Dame 12 - 6 100.0
Wake Forest 9 - 9 100.0
Miami (FL) 10 - 8 100.0
Virginia Tech 10 - 8 100.0
Clemson 6 - 12 100.0
Syracuse 10 - 8 100.0
Pittsburgh 4 - 14 100.0
Georgia Tech 8 - 10 100.0
North Carolina St. 4 - 14 100.0
Boston College 2 - 16 100.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
North Carolina 100.0% 100.0
Louisville
Duke
Virginia
Florida St.
Notre Dame
Wake Forest
Miami (FL)
Virginia Tech
Clemson
Syracuse
Pittsburgh
Georgia Tech
North Carolina St.
Boston College


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   37.8 52.2 9.6 0.4 100.0%
Louisville 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 2   11.8 39.0 38.0 10.6 0.6 0.0 100.0%
Duke 100.0% 100.0% 0.0% 2   10.6 58.1 29.9 1.4
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 5   0.1 0.6 11.5 35.3 41.5 10.8 0.4 100.0%
Florida St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 4   0.3 3.5 40.4 45.1 10.5 0.3 0.0 100.0%
Notre Dame 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 5   0.0 4.4 20.7 50.4 23.5 1.1 100.0%
Wake Forest 82.2% 0.0% 82.2% 11   0.0 0.2 2.1 5.6 18.5 48.0 7.8 17.8 82.2%
Miami (FL) 97.1% 0.0% 97.1% 8   0.1 1.4 14.4 29.4 27.9 18.2 5.7 0.1 2.9 97.1%
Virginia Tech 98.7% 0.0% 98.7% 8   0.0 1.2 16.6 38.0 29.6 11.7 1.6 1.3 98.7%
Clemson 6.8% 0.0% 6.8% 0.2 3.5 3.1 93.2 6.8%
Syracuse 33.9% 0.0% 33.9% 0.0 0.2 2.4 21.0 10.3 66.1 33.9%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 99.8 0.2%
North Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
North Carolina 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.9% 75.5% 48.0% 27.8% 15.6% 8.1%
Louisville 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.5% 66.9% 38.3% 19.4% 9.6% 4.4%
Duke 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.8% 65.4% 35.8% 16.8% 7.8% 3.2%
Virginia 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 84.0% 48.8% 22.1% 10.9% 4.8% 2.0%
Florida St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 88.3% 51.4% 23.3% 10.5% 4.4% 1.7%
Notre Dame 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 74.1% 34.6% 13.1% 5.2% 1.9% 0.7%
Wake Forest 82.2% 40.4% 64.0% 27.5% 8.5% 2.8% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1%
Miami (FL) 97.1% 2.0% 96.3% 49.0% 12.2% 4.5% 1.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Virginia Tech 98.7% 0.3% 98.5% 47.0% 9.5% 2.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0%
Clemson 6.8% 6.2% 3.7% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Syracuse 33.9% 27.6% 20.0% 6.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Pittsburgh 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Georgia Tech 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Carolina St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Boston College 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 9.2 0.3 11.4 58.9 28.3 1.2
1st Round 100.0% 8.8 0.9 28.4 58.2 12.3 0.2
2nd Round 100.0% 6.7 0.0 0.2 2.4 11.0 28.7 35.6 18.3 3.6 0.1 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.8% 3.7 0.2 2.5 11.7 26.8 32.8 19.9 5.6 0.7 0.0
Elite Eight 93.4% 1.9 6.6 28.4 38.1 21.2 5.2 0.5 0.0
Final Four 69.0% 0.9 31.0 47.1 19.3 2.6 0.1
Final Game 41.0% 0.4 59.1 37.0 3.9
Champion 20.3% 0.2 79.7 20.3